Predicting the outcomes of sports events can be tricky. However, by using gambling statistics, UK punters can make more accurate wagering choices. In this review, we explain how to implement betting statistics, trends, and implied probability into your strategy.
Later, you can read our Unibet review and see if you would like to test your betting system on their site. And, if you want to unlock the benefits of promo code betting, here are the latest bookmaker bonus codes and how to use them for an improved experience.
The Importance of Using Betting Statistics and Trends
The gambling demographics revealed most punters bet on football, horse racing, and then other sports like golf, boxing, and tennis. Whatever sports you like, it’s time to start analysing statistics for gambling and betting trends.
Statistics reveal valuable information that can help you predict the potential outcomes of sports events more accurately. For example, the stats can reveal how frequently a team wins when playing away.
Player stats include information on their performance and current health condition. In sports like football and basketball, this piece of information is significant because one player can make a huge difference.
Models like machine learning algorithms can offer a likelihood of one or multiple outcomes. In doing so, they include a variety of variables, providing a fuller picture than you can ever do by manual examination. Additionally, such models help you see which wagers are more likely to win than the odds propose.
Overall, with the help of data and stats, bettors can test their hypotheses and identify trends from players and teams. In addition, they can help you spot new betting opportunities and to plan your betting strategy.
Understanding Trends in Betting
Betting trends help you assume a potential outcome of a game, as they provide you with the general eventualities and direction of certain matches in the past. They are based on historical stats, past results, current odds, and other factors.
However, you need to learn how to use them to help you predict the match outcomes. Your task is to find consistent gambling stats, like a repeating result or high-scoring games. Of course, trends cannot guarantee a win but can move you one step closer to more informed decisions.
For instance, you may notice that a certain team has an entirely different defensive strategy when playing away from home. Another example would be a tennis player winning most of their matches on serve according to the player stats.
Horse racing stats show that favourites win the race between 30% and 35% of the time. However, trends may help you identify if outright favourites win more frequently on certain days than others and similar. The gambling statistics UK for runners can help you maximise the benefits of promo codes and offers for horse racing betting by making more informed wagers.
How to Apply Statistics When Betting?
Both newbies and seasoned betters can use sportsbook stats and tips to improve their betting skills. Beginners can make use of basic stats like a team’s league ranking, current form, and results from previous matches. More advanced bettors will consider all that and also look at data on first-half scores, corners, and other valuable insights.
For example, an amateur bettor wants to wager on the Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton. They can see that in the last 13 games, both teams scored an average of four goals per match. Therefore, they could predict that there will be over three goals in the game.
Meanwhile, an experienced punter has chosen to wager on corners in the game between Newcastle and Tottenham. The corner stats reveal that out of the average of 11 total corners, Newcastle won an average of 4.3 per match and conceded 6.7.
On the other hand, Tottenham has an average of 8.3 goals gained and 2.7 conceded out of an average of 11 per match. With these sports betting statistics, you could bet on a match corner line of over 10.5, for example.
Promo Codes Betting Statistics
In 2023, the Gambling Commission conducted research on players’ interactions and attitudes towards promo code betting. To start with, it reveals that 9 out of 10 respondents received a bonus in the last four weeks. Moreover, 76% of them moved on to use the promotion.
Free Bets and Odds Boosts were sent to customers most frequently. Furthermore, 74% of respondents recall receiving a Free Bet offer, while 70% got bets with boosted odds. In addition, many consumers were using daily offers recurrently.
The vast majority of players were exposed to bonuses passively, with 26% who intentionally searched for them online. The gambling demographics revealed this was predominantly a younger audience between 18 and 34 years of age.
Finally, according to the UKGC’s statistics and gambling investigation, most players confirmed that bonus terms and conditions are clear. However, matched deposit offers and cashback bonuses were found to be slightly confusing.
How to Use Statistics and Probability in Your Betting Strategy?
If you want to make more accurate predictions, you should familiarise yourself with the implied probability. While odds express ratios between outcomes occurring, probability is the ratio between one outcome and all the potential match outcomes.
You can calculate the implied probability by dividing 1 by the decimal odds. For example, if Arsenal has odds of 3.0 to win a match, their implied probability of winning is 0.33 (33%).
Now that you know how to calculate probability, you should also learn about probability models. Essentially, they help you identify value bets and include:
Binomial distribution
This probability model tool is perfect to use when there are two potential outcomes, like win and loss. For example, you can use it to check the likelihood of a team winning a certain number of matches in a series.
Poisson Distribution
It allows you to predict how many times a certain event will occur within the specified time. For instance, you can use it to calculate the likely number of goals to be scored in a football match or the number of runs in a cricket game.
Normal Distribution
This probability tool is ideal for betting scenarios with bet stats taken across longer periods. You can use it to predict the potential end-of-season performance for a certain team based on their overall performance throughout the season.
In addition, regression analysis is one of the best statistical methods for making more informed decisions. Namely, you need to consider various variables and the relationships between them. This can include history stats, home-field advantage, player injuries, and many more.
For instance, when you bet on a horse race, you should consider horse pedigree, track conditions, jockey experience, and other factors. However, you can also use statistical analysis to calculate the optimal stake size.
How to Calculate Probability in Betting?
Betting statistics help you make more accurate predictions, whereas calculating implied probability helps you identify the potential value in a betting market. Simply enough, this is the process of converting odds into a percentage.
Moreover, it takes into account the bookie edge to express the likelihood of an outcome happening. If the sportsbook’s implied probability is lower than yours, it means you have a value betting opportunity.
Since there are different odds formats, the formula for calculating the probability also differs. For example, imagine that Djokovic is given odds of 1.20 to win a match, while Murray has odds of 5.50.
To convert decimal odds into implied probability, you need to divide 1 by odds times 100. For Djokovic, this is 1÷1.20×100=83.3%. The same odds for Djokovic, only fractional, are 1/5. To work out the implied probability for fractional odds, the formula is denominator÷(denominator+numerator)×100. So, that would be 5÷(5+1)×100=83.3%
Lastly, the American odds are calculated differently depending on whether they are positive or negative. The formula for positive odds (Murray +450) is 100÷(odds+100)×100. That is 100÷(450+100)×100=18.1%. Meanwhile, this is how to calculate probability from negative odds (Djokovic -500): odds÷(odds+100)×100. This is odds÷(-500+100)×100=83.3%.
Finally, it’s worth noting that you can use an implied probability calculator online to assess the potential value of a preferred market.
Statistics to Use When Betting on Football
The 2023 Gambling Commission gambling stats research revealed football is the most popular sport among local bettors. Moreover, if you are an avid football fan, you can find fresh football betting promo codes and offers on our website.
However, to make the best out of any promotion, you need to seek statistics for gambling to make more informed bets. Below, we explain how to use football betting statistics and tips to your advantage.
League Position
League position gives a sense of a team’s overall performance throughout the season. It provides a general overview of their strengths, resources, and quality for that season.
The final league positions are based on goals per match, goals against per match, PPG (points per game), and more.
Thus, league placing can provide an idea of a team’s quality, but reasons for their rank can help you choose specific types of bets. However, note that the team’s rank doesn’t necessarily reflect their recent form and performance.
Sometimes, stronger teams within a league may struggle with poor results, whereas lower-placed clubs can achieve better results than usual. Therefore, it’s important to consider other football stats and factors that can have an impact on the game outcome for a more global picture.
Recent Form
The team form is based on their recent results and other betting statistics. It looks at their performance in the past few matches and gives an idea of how well or poorly they may perform in upcoming games.
You also have to take into account factors such as suspensions, injuries, and team morale, all of which have a substantial impact on their chances of winning a certain match. Other things to consider include: the team’s current style of play, the number of goals they are scoring and conceding, yards per attempt, and turnover margin.
Every little detail can provide information about the outcome of the next match. Therefore, we also recommend that you keep track of the team news. Moreover, with valuable insights and tips, you’re not limited to match betting. You can choose from various betting markets once you are familiar with football stats regarding the current form.
Head to Head (H2H)
Head-to-head records may be the best way to compare the skills of the two teams and figure out which one is more likely to win. H2H sportsbook stats can reveal whether one team is dominant. Although this doesn’t necessarily mean they will win again, if they are in good form, it’s fairly probable.
That being said, you shouldn’t underestimate the underdog. See if one of the two teams has had dramatic comebacks against another. If so, it can be a good idea to place a Double Chance or Win to Nil wager. Also, consider their scoring histories. If there were many goals in their past meetings, the Over/ Under market can be an ideal option.
You should also look at what football stats say about each team’s performance at home and away. If either has demonstrated a significant difference between their home and away performance, that can impact the outcome. If a stronger host team competes against a weaker opponent, you can be more confident about the outcome.
Goal Advantages
Football betting statistics also reveal the number of goals each team scored and conceded over the season. Manchester City, which scored nine goals in the 2024/ 25 season, is naturally more likely to win than Everton, who scored only two. Furthermore, Everton has conceded ten goals so far.
If you wanted to wager on the 1×2 market, you would normally pick Citizens to win. However, knowing this kind of football stats opens the door to other betting possibilities. If two high-scoring teams are competing, Both Teams To Score could be a great bet to place. Depending on the data and tips, you could also go for Over/ Under, First Goalscorer, etc.
Expected Goals
Based on goals for and goals against online sports betting stats, bookies can propose expected goal values. For example, football stats reveal that Liverpool, who scored seven goals and conceded none over the last three games, has an 8.75 xG (expected goals for) value and 2.30 xGA (expected goals against).
However, it’s important to note that these values change as the tournament progresses. You should keep track of tables for the latest updates so you can make better bets. Like league position, expected goals give you a more global view of the team’s performance and cannot be used to identify value bets.
Disadvantages of Only Relying on Statistics
Even though gambling statistics can improve your chances of making a successful wager, they don’t guarantee a win. There is always room for surprises on the field. For example, a key player may suffer a serious injury and leave the game.
Also, weather conditions can change, formation as well, and other unpredictable factors can influence the match outcome. Or, if a manager is replaced by someone far better or less competent, league rank and previous performance may offer little value.
Although using bet stats has limits, there is a way to shield yourself against elements out of control. You can place a live bet and cash out your stake if needed. Of course, live statistics and gambling shouldn’t be separated. To make more accurate assumptions, you should access the in-play match tracker to find standings, H2H data, and other information.
Conclusion
In short, betting statistics can be a powerful tool when planning your bets. They provide you with a better understanding of a game, guide your decision-making, help you better manage your bankroll, and have other benefits.
It’s also helpful to learn to identify consistencies in outcomes and calculate implied probability. Finally, make sure to find the bookie with competitive odds where you can make use of statistics and gambling wins will count.
FAQ
Finally, you can learn more about sports betting stats in this FAQ section.
You can use stats for betting purposes. Gambling statistics can reveal a team’s form, player standing, and other useful information that can help you predict the match outcome more accurately.
It refers to using stats and trying to identify any consistent occurrences or outcomes for a team. This way, you may be able to predict how their next match will play out.
Online sports betting statistics are based on the team’s form, player standings, top high scorers, most corners, and various other information. With data like this, it’s possible to provide odds across different betting markets.
Our advice is to look at the basic metrics when analysing football betting statistics, like goals per game and clean sheet. Use team form, H2H history, home and away records, and other football stats to identify betting trends. Also, consider player impact, line-up or strategy changes, and anything that can influence the match outcome.
